Authors: Andrea Little Limbago, PhD, SVP, Applied AI and Patrick Van Hull, Industry Principal 

Remember the empty store shelves in early 2020? COVID-19 did more than disrupt logistics. It exposed the sprawling complexity and fragility of global trade networks. What the pandemic made clear, and what we at interos.ai are always thinking, is: your supply chain is a complex, multi-tier sprawling web, and when it breaks, the consequences cascade far beyond commerce. 

 Since then, the volume and sophistication of supply chain disruptions have escalated. While the pandemic may have been a natural stress test, today’s threats are often deliberate.  

Governments and non-state actors across the globe, understanding the many Covid-era supply chain vulnerabilities that were exposed, are now using these weaknesses as tools of power and influence. What started as a reaction has evolved into a strategy. 

This is not new behavior. What is new is the speed, scale, and digital interconnectedness that gives these strategies their potency.  

At interos.ai, we call this new reality supply chain warfare. Supply chains are no longer passive networks. They are strategic terrain. And we see the signs across industries:

• Tariffs and sanctions deployed with surgical precision 
• Unreliable payments and opaque financial flows 
• Disinformation campaigns and tampering used to sow mistrust in suppliers 
• Asymmetric disruption tactics targeting Tier-2 or Tier-3 partners 

These are not hypothetical risks. They are happening now.  

 From the weaponization of critical minerals to export controls on thousands of companies to product tampering, supply chain warfare is here.

US-imposed restricted entities spiked in 2023 with cumulative sanctions surpassing 15,000. Sanctions in H1 2025 are already higher than the whole of 2022.  

As a recent MIT article stated, “global supply chains have emerged as a crucial battlefield for modern power politics, and the businesses that constitute these chains are the front lines.” Understanding this level of impact requires more than spreadsheets or ERPs (Enterprise Resource Planning).  

It requires real-time, multi-tier visibility, backed by contextual intelligence. That’s where interos.ai comes in. 

From Crisis to Contest: The Strategic Rise of Supply Chain Warfare 

The pandemic provided a crash course in supply chain dynamics, but it was only the beginning. Natural disasters continue to cause billions of dollars in supply chain losses each year. The Russian invasion of Ukraine highlighted additional supply chain fragility due to global conflict as do growing concerns surrounding an Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz.  

We are now in the new era where tariffs, criticial infrastructure and the AI arms race are weapons or targets of supply chain warfare.  

Small-scale cyberattacks have spiraled into global shutdowns. Sabotage strategies have evolved into intricate webs of economic and operational interference, something that might be called a spider web strategy. China’s deep entrenchment in global energy infrastructure, rare earth minerals, and technology manufacturing is not coincidental. It reflects a deliberate position of influence. 

The ambition behind these moves is centuries old. Great powers have always sought economic leverage. What has changed is the technology, which now enables global reach at a speed, breadth, and depth unparalleled in history. The last year alone is quite telling.  

For example: 

• The fall 2024 pager attacks brought together existing tactics for unprecedented lethality and impact via supply chain manipulation, shifting global norms in cyber warfare.  
• The Ukrainian ‘Spider Web’ drone attacks used the millennia old approach of a Trojan horse coupled with arguably the first widescale and successful drone attack on military targets. Hidden within disguised cargo trucks, Spider Web highlights the vulnerability of supply chains along transit routes.  
• Revelations of Chinese manipulation of batteries and solar equipment raised alarms for the growing potential of nation-states to cause widespread blackouts, destruction of critical energy infrastructure, and societal destabilization. 
• The escalating and deescalating US/China trade war combines a wide range of tools of economic statecraft. With export controls targeting thousands of countries, and tariff negotiations resembling arms control negotiations, supply chains are the battleground in global power conflict. 

With more digital touchpoints, more automation, and more geopolitical entanglements, supply chains have transformed. They are no longer passive enablers of growth. They are active arenas of strategic posturing and conflict. 

The Mechanics of Modern Supply Chain Warfare 

Economic policy, tariffs, export controls, cyberattacks, and supplier sanctions are now tactical weapons. What once seemed compartmentalized to warfare now resembles gray zone conflict between war and peace.  

Due to the expansion of great power conflict, many draw analogies to the Cold War, but those often fall short due to two key factors:  

• the digital revolution and  
• globalized supply chains.  

It is impossible to overstate how technology is reshaping global conflict. From drone attacks to cyber-attacks, and especially combined with chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) threats, modern warfare is changing daily in ways that were unimaginable during the Cold War. 

At the same time, the complexity and hyperconnectivity of supply chains simply did not exist in previous eras of great power conflict. Thanks to global supply chains, mutually assured economic destruction dominates global economic tactics, surfacing both offensive advantages as well as vulnerabilities. 

The characteristics of this new era of supply chain warfare can broadly be bucketed into four key areas. The first two – regulatory warfare and manipulation and tampering – reflect the core tactics. The second key mechanisms – uncertainty and asymmetry – are more so features of supply chain warfare that accentuate the breadth and impact. 

Core Tactics of Supply Chain Warfare:  

• Regulatory Warfare: Export controls, import bans, and sanctions now move faster than businesses can track and assess.  Over 15,000 entities have been added to U.S. sanctions lists in recent years.  For its part, China imposed sanctions and prevented access to batteries critical to the US’s largest drone manufacturer, rendering them unable to make deliveries. As the chief executive noted, “This is an attack on Skydio, but it’s also an attack on you”, referencing the companies’ customers. Regulatory warfare is also leading to the creation of new supply chains and broader supply chain transformations as countries seek to circumvent the sanctions.  
• Digital and Physical Manipulation and Tampering: By hiding sources or spreading disinformation about reliability, bad actors can introduce confusion and destabilize supply chain decisions. Disinformation-for-hire is on the rise, no longer confined to national governments; it’s now being weaponized to discredit companies across entire supply chains. Similarly, physical tampering is a mechanism aimed at disrupting or even sabotaging supply chains. Both technology supply chains and critical infrastructure are especially at risk, with tampering often reminiscent to approaches aimed at ‘preparing the battlefield’. For instance, Chinese hacking group Salt Typhoon infiltrated the largest US telecom companies, gaining unprecedented access to critical infrastructure, while agroterrorism is a growing risk to food supply chains. 

Features of Supply Chain Warfare:  

• Imposing Uncertainty: Tariff tensions and shifting regulations are fueling broader instability across supply chains and hindering long-term planning. China’s halt on rare earth metal experts and delayed acceptance of Boeing aircraft deliveries, moves that may seem routine, are strategic actions with far-reaching consequences. These disruptions impact not just small businesses, but major corporations tied to national security, highlighting how everyday trade decisions are now tools of supply chain warfare.    
• Asymmetric Tactics: Technology has been an equalizer when it comes to the gray zone conflict indicative of supply chain warfare as well as modern warfare. Inexpensive and/or resource light actions by smaller players can achieve outsized impacts when they strike vulnerable supply nodes. This is the supply chain equivalent of guerrilla warfare and is exposing strategic vulnerabilities in supply chains.  
  • For instance, protests across the globe – ranging from environmental activists to labor unions to political demonstrations – have disrupted supply chains from Canada to Europe to Asia.  
  • Similarly, as Ukrainian drone attacks demonstrate, less resourced actors can strike deep into a country’s critical infrastructure thousands of miles away.  
  • Cyber-attacks similarly have been conducted by small groups with widespread impact against major powers or corporations.  The Colonial pipeline attack – which disrupted major fuel supplies along the East Coast – has been attributed to an Eastern European criminal group.  

In short, sizable supply chain disruptions are now possible with minimal resources and are accessible to a broader range of malicious actors. 

Rethinking Resilience: What Companies Must Do Now 

Whack-a-mole is ineffective in an era of supply chain warfare. Companies must be proactive against these risks and invest now in both the time, resources, and strategies to ensure resilience in a world of uncertainty. Risk intelligence is a strategic enabler,  empowering leaders to stop seeing supply chains as cost centers and start recognizing them as systems that direct strategy, security, and long-term survival. 

There are several steps companies can take on the journey toward resilient supply chains: 

1. Look Beyond Immediate Impacts

A missed shipment or a failed supplier might appear minor. But if that partner is part of a critical sector like semiconductors or cloud services, the impact can be severe, with supply chain disruptions costing organizations an average of $182 million annually in lost revenue alone. Distinguishing first-order disruptions from second-order consequences is essential. Where are the disruptions that might hit you directly, and where are those indirect impacts that might pass through your supplier network before landing in your lap? 

For instance, some companies have derisked their first tier of suppliers, and reduced geographic concentration risks, thus minimizing tariff fluctuations. However, the subsequent tier of suppliers may face elevated tariffs and pass those costs to a company’s direct suppliers.  

2. Map Stakeholders, Not Just Suppliers

Risk spreads through networks, not just vendor lists. Companies need visibility into who those suppliers rely on, who finances them, and who governs them. interos.ai goes beyond simple supplier lists, mapping your entire operational network, including your suppliers, their suppliers, and beyond, so you can see how financial, cyber, ESG, restrictions, natural disasters, and geopolitical risks propagate across tiers.  

3. Think Ahead, Not Just in Real Time

Manually tracking events is not enough. Leaders need to simulate future scenarios. A cyberattack on a tier-2 supplier today could trigger regulatory violations, reputational damage, or operational delays in the weeks ahead. With real-time monitoring and AI-driven risk scoring, we give you early warning indicators—whether it’s a cyber breach in Southeast Asia, a sudden ESG controversy, or a new export restriction. 

4. Build Real-Time Resilience

Static contingency plans don’t adapt, so resilience is not a document, but a capability. Today’s threats demand tools and data that allow companies to see, assess, and act quickly. Agility and speed are essential to prevent disruptions from spreading. interos.ai’s platform enables companies to act on risk faster than it spreads, re-route dependencies, and communicate confidently with stakeholders. 

The Real Shift: From Efficiency to Endurance 

The biggest challenge may not be technological. It is cultural. Resilience requires rethinking priorities, moving beyond just-in-time efficiency, and investing in visibility and adapting to the new normal of supply chain warfare.  

Leaders need to make difficult, and sometimes costly, decisions now to protect long-term value. That includes considerations like diversifying supply, onshore critical production, and scrutinizing regulatory compliance. Balancing near term priorities with longer-term investments has always been a balancing act; companies focused on endurance will take some efficiency hits but will be much better situated to persist successfully in this new global environment. 

At interos.ai, we believe that resilience is now a competitive advantage. It requires continuous visibility, cross-functional collaboration, and the courage to act on emerging risks.  

It is about gaining an advantage in a world where supply chains have become battlefields where leaders must shape their destiny in a contested and complex world. 

Supply chain warfare is here. interos.ai is how you win. 

 

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